How to Forecast with Confidence: The 3-step system to predict financial success
Welcome to Emerge Insights, my weekly newsletter, where I reveal cutting-edge tips to help you find momentum, scale up your business, and reclaim your life.
Read time: 4.28 minutes.
Read this on: jeanmoncrieff.com
What's in store for today:
- Why profit ≠cash flow (and what to do about it)
- The 12 key financial ratios you need to know
- How to escape the execution trap
Hey there,
If you’re like most business owners, you check your profit and loss statement and feel pretty good about the numbers—until you open your bank account and wonder: Where’s all the money?
Sound familiar?
You’re not alone.
Cash flow problems are one of the biggest challenges entrepreneurs face—not because they aren’t making money, but because they don’t truly understand how money moves through their business.
That’s why I sat down with Tracy Bech, founder of 60 Minute CFO and author of 60 Minute CFO: Bridging the Gap Between Business and Finance.
Tracy went from running a multi-million-dollar e-commerce business to becoming a finance expert after realizing that profitability doesn’t always mean financial security.
“I had strong profits but no cash, and I didn’t know why. Then I realized—I was looking at the wrong numbers.” – Tracy Bech
In our conversation, Tracy breaks down the 12 key financial ratios that determine your company’s financial health, the phases of business growth, and why most entrepreneurs focus on the wrong financial statements.
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If you want to take control of your numbers and stop flying blind, this episode is for you.
🎙️ In this episode, we get into:
- Profit vs. Cash Flow: Why a great P&L doesn’t mean money in the bank
- 12 Financial Ratios: The must-know metrics for running a stable business
- The Phases of Growth: How to move from Wonder to Thunder—and avoid Plunder
- The Power of the Balance Sheet: Why this overlooked document holds the real story
- How to Forecast with Confidence: The 3-step system to predict financial success
I hope you enjoy Jean
🎧 Listen to the full conversation on The Freedom Experience:
Apple Podcasts | Spotify | YouTube
1. The truth about business finance
📊 Most entrepreneurs focus on their income statement—but that’s only part of the story.
Your P&L shows revenue and expenses, but it doesn’t tell you:
- How much cash is locked up in receivables or inventory
- Whether your business can actually sustain growth without running out of cash
- If you’ll have enough money to cover payroll, rent, or supplier payments when they’re due
That’s why your balance sheet and cash flow statement matter just as much—if not more.
Many business owners chase revenue, assuming that growth equals success. But without a strong balance sheet, growth can be a trap—scaling up while cash flow tightens, profits get reinvested, and financial pressure builds.
I’ve been there.
My business grew from $5M to $20M, but I was focused on the wrong numbers. The revenue looked great, but cash was constantly tight, and I wasn’t paying enough attention to working capital, debt ratios, or liquidity.
It took a wake-up call to realize that growth without financial control isn’t real growth—it’s a treadmill.
That’s why Tracy’s book, 60 Minute CFO, is an essential read for any business owner who wants to move beyond surface-level numbers and truly understand how money moves through their business.
She lays out 12 key financial ratios that give a full picture of financial health—covering liquidity, profitability, efficiency, and leverage. These ratios help you see warning signs before they become crises, make smarter investment decisions, and build a business that isn’t just bigger, but stronger.
If you want to scale profitably, build lasting value, and avoid cash flow crises, it’s time to look beyond the income statement and track the numbers that actually matter.
đź’ˇ Want to build a business that thrives, not just survives?
Have a read of the 60 Minute CFO.
2. The 12 Financial Ratios you need to know
Forget endless spreadsheets—these 12 key numbers will tell you everything you need to know:
📌 Profit Margin: The percentage of revenue that turns into actual profit. (Hint: A high-dollar profit doesn’t always mean a healthy business!)
đź“Ś Current Ratio: Your ability to pay short-term debts. Anything below 1.5 is a red flag.
📌 Receivable Days: How long it takes customers to pay. If it’s too long, your cash flow suffers.
đź“Ś Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Measures how much of your company is funded by debt vs. owner investment.
đź“Ś Survival Score: A financial indicator that predicts whether your business can weather adversity.
đź“Ś Revenue per Employee: A simple but powerful way to measure efficiency.
Tracy shares all 12 in the episode—don’t miss this one.
3. How to escape the execution trap
If you’re constantly stuck in execution mode, chances are you’re not focusing enough on strategy, coaching your team, or professional development.
🎥 That’s exactly what I discuss in my latest YouTube video:
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❌ Are you spending 80% of your time putting out fires instead of growing your company?
❌ Do you feel like you’re the bottleneck holding back your business?
❌ Are you constantly caught in the day-to-day instead of scaling strategically?
In this video, I break down:
âś” Where business owners actually spend their time vs. where they should be
âś” Why growth stalls when leaders focus too much on execution
âś” How to shift from doing the work to leading the vision
One quote to start the week strong
"Someone once told me the definition of Hell: The last day you have on earth, the person you became will meet the person you could have become.”​― Dan Sullivan
I’ve been sitting with this quote all weekend.
We all have the potential to build something meaningful, to create, to lead, to leave a mark. But potential means nothing without action.
Maybe hell isn’t just falling short of who you could have been—it’s never trying. It’s coasting instead of committing. It’s letting fear, doubt, or distraction keep you from pursuing your purpose with everything you have.
The real loss isn’t failing. It’s never stepping fully into the work, the impact, the life you were capable of creating.
Go all in.
Have a great week!
- Jean
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